- Second quarter earnings releases heat up this week with reports from Netflix, Bank of America, IBM, and Tesla on tap. Earnings and visibility into future earnings are top of mind for equity investors and this earnings season looms as very important for the markets. The top-down consensus for 2023 according to Goldman Sachs for the S&P 500 is $223/share. Last week saw several of the large banks report better than expected earnings, aided by better than expected net interest income. Sixty S&P 500 companies are on tap to report earnings this week.
- Highlighting the economic data calendar will be retail sales, industrial production, and housing data. Excluding auto sales, the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey is for a 0.3% gain. Core retail sales, which excludes auto, gasoline sales, building materials, and food services, are seen rising by 0.2%, which would put the Q2 pace slightly above Q1.
- The dollar index fell over 2% last week, the largest drop in over eight months and the greenback will be closely watched this week as it sits at/near the lowest level for the year.
- According to new U.S. government data, annualized interest payments on U.S. debt just crossed $900 billion for the first time in history. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- The average holding period for U.S. equities has declined from five years in 1977 to ten months today. (Source: @simpleinvest01)
- The Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 25-26 to discuss monetary policy. According to the CME’s Fed watch tool, the 30-day Fed funds futures price the odds of a quarter point increase at 96%. (Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange)