By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Friday is a national holiday and the markets are closed, but despite that it will be a busy week. Focus will shift from geopolitics to U.S. fiscal policy and to President Trump’s tax cut and spending bill. It passed a critical procedural vote in the Senate Saturday night, and President Trump would like to sign it by July 4. The Congressional Budget Office indicates the bill could add $3.9 trillion to the national debt, complicating its passage.
- Top-tier data this week comes in the form of the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and service reports and the June employment report. Manufacturing is expecting a weak print (<50) while the service side of the economy continues to show positive momentum. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast up 113,000, with the unemployment rate advancing to 4.3%. May’s data was generally softer than expected so June’s data will be closely watched.
- Several U.S. Federal Reserve speakers will be on the tapes about the economy and monetary policy, including Chairman Powell on Tuesday. Futures are now priced for a cut in September and two to three total for the year.
Three Things to Know
- Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on July 4, 1826. Remarkably, both founding fathers passed away on the exact 50th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence, just hours apart. (Source: Fun World Facts)
- Rwanda celebrates its own liberation on the Fourth of July. The country gained freedom from Belgium on July 1, 1962. (Source: The Pioneer Woman)
- When Social Security first started paying benefits in 1940, there were 159 workers putting money in for every one person taking money out. The ratio today is less than 3 to 1. (Source: Creative Planning)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.