Three Things to Know & Watch

Apr 3, 2023

By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch

  • Energy prices will be in focus early in the week. OPEC+ announced further output cuts of approximately one million barrels per day (bpd) in a surprise move late Sunday. The new cuts bring the total volume of OPEC+ (which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies) to 3.66 million bpd according to Reuters. Oil was up over 5% Sunday evening.
  • Two high-profile economic reports to watch this week include the ISM manufacturing survey on Monday and the March employment report on the Good Friday market holiday. ISM is expected below 50 (indicating contraction) for the 5th time in the past six months. Non-farm payrolls are expected up 240,000 and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.6%.
  • The new quarter starts for investors on Monday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all higher, led by NASDAQ, which closed Q1 at its high for the year.

Three Things to Know

  • April has been a good month for stocks in recent years. The S&P 500 has been higher 15 of the last 17 Aprils. (Source: CNBC)
  • Historically, the Fed has not finished a tightening cycle until the target Fed funds rate is above inflation (as measured by personal consumption expenditures or PCE). Target Fed funds are currently 4.75% while PCE was last at 5% after peaking last June at 7%. (Source: Haver)
  • Americans spend $1.9 billion on Easter candy. That’s the second-biggest candy holiday after Halloween. 70% of Easter candy purchased is chocolate. (Source:


The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.