By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- The inflation reports, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in particular, will be top of mind this week. On Wednesday, CPI is expected to show a 0.3% increase from last month, which would put the year-over-year (y/y) change at 2.9%. That would be welcome relief after overall CPI has drifted higher the previous two months. Core CPI is also expected up 0.3%, with a y/y change of 3.0%. Core CPI has been above 3.0% since March 2021.
- Tariffs remain front and center on investors’ minds. Last week featured many tariffs being delayed again (until April) and modestly higher tariffs on China. On Monday, President Trump will meet with leaders from the tech industry to discuss the impact of tariffs. Tariffs, along with more austerity measures from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, have increased the odds of recession this year and have had a large negative impact on confidence.
- Friday is the deadline for a spending bill to avoid a partial government shutdown. Democrats are looking for guarantees that would prevent the firing of more workers or cancelling of more government programs.
Three Things to Know
- For decades, candy makers lobbied for daylight saving time, believing it would lead to more candy sales around Halloween. However, after the federal government established daylight saving, children simply waited until dark to go trick-or-treating. (Source: Fact Retriever)
- Since 1990, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% on average per year. That drops to -12.5% if you miss the 10 best days of the year. The best days of the year tend to happen in clusters around the worst days, so if you fear big down days and sell, you’ll miss the best days. (Source: Ryan Detrick)
- “Cyberloafing,” or surfing the web for enjoyment during work hours, increases significantly on the first Monday after daylight saving time begins in the spring. Researchers attributed this increase to lack of sleep and thus lack of focus and motivation. (Source: Fact Retriever)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.