By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- The economic calendar this week includes updates on new home sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing gauge, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) favored inflation measure: personal consumption expenditures. New home sales are expected to be up 3% month-over-month, which would be a welcome sign of strength. New home sales remain well below the 2020 peak and have been generally softening since last summer. The ISM survey is expected below 50 for the 16th consecutive month, although the sector has been showing signs of improvement in recent months.
- The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is the Fed’s favored measure of inflation and will be released on Thursday. It is expected up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis and continues to decline toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Both the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index last week were hotter than expected, so PCE has the chance to move the needle of Fed expectations in either direction.
- Earnings releases this week include Lowe’s, eBay, TJX, Salesforce and Anheuser-Busch InBev. With the vast majority having reported, S&P 500 companies were on track to increase fourth-quarter earnings by 10% from the year-earlier period, according to LSEG IBES data, which would be the biggest rise since the first quarter of 2022.
Three Things to Know
- Gold and the Dow were both 800 in 1980. Today, Gold is $2,035/ounce, and the Dow is over 39,000. (Source: The Irrelevant Investor)
- The S&P 500 closed at its 13th all-time high of the year on Friday. The record for the greatest number of all-time highs in a calendar year is 70 in 2021. (Source: @CharlieBilello)
- The average price of a used Tesla has declined 19 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $32,984 today. (Source: @CharlieBilello)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.