By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- The markets will continue to digest the Fed’s rate increase and announcement from last week while seeing a whole new round of data this week before breaking for the Christmas holiday. Fears of recession continue to increase and stocks were weaker last week, with the selling accelerating after the Fed meeting ended. The S&P 500 fell 273 points from its high Tuesday morning and ended the week off 2.1%.
- The key data releases to watch include Wednesday’s reading on consumer confidence and Thursday’s leading index. Leading indicators have been negative for eight consecutive months and another negative reading is expected. This will further fan recession concerns.
- On Friday, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation will be released for November. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core PCE are expected up 5.5% and 4.7% year-over-year, respectively. These readings would represent declines from both the years peak and the previous reading, consistent with the more widely known consumer price index (CPI).
Three Things to Know
- For decades, the definition of a recession has been at least two consecutive quarters with negative GDP. A recession in 2023 would mark the third recession in three years: The first and second quarters of both 2020 and 2021 were negative. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- Four major league shortstops signed as free agents this offseason with the four contracts totaling in excess of $1 billion. The four were Carlos Correa ($350 million), Trea Turner ($300 million), Xander Bogarts ($280 million), and Dansby Swanson ($177 million). (Source: espn.com)
- In a turbulent year marred by global monetary tightening, recession fears, and a war in Ukraine, a mining stock in Indonesia is proving to be the world’s best performer with a whopping 1,595% rally. That stock is PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia which went public Jan. 3. (Source: Bloomberg)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.