By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Despite a midweek holiday, the markets have a lot to chew on this week. Monday’s trading will likely be dominated by positioning related to the escalating hostilities in the Middle East. Stocks were down sharply on Friday, and oil prices have rallied on fears of supply disruption. Traditional safe-haven assets gold and Treasury bonds had a muted response to Israel’s attack on Iran.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meets this week and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, updated economic projections (the first since Liberation Day) will be released, and the markets will be very interested in the Fed’s take on tariffs and trade policy.
- On the data front, retail sales ex-autos and gas are expected up 0.3%, and the leading index is expected to fall 0.1%, which would be the 37th decline in the last 39 months.
Three Things to Know
- U.S. households hit an all-time high of exposure to stocks in 2024, at 30%, coming down just modestly in 2025 to 29%. (Source: Markets & Mayhem)
- The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. national debt will hit $59 trillion by 2035 versus $35.2 trillion currently. (Source: CBO, Haver)
- Geopolitical escalations have an average one-day drawdown of 1.2%, with an average total drawdown of 5% and recovery time of 47 days. (Source: Markets & Mayhem)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.