By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Big week of economic data and U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) news. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will end its two-day meeting and is expected to pave the way for a rate cut in September. The recent milder increases in inflation and a slightly higher unemployment rate are widely believed to provide the confidence that the Fed needs to reduce rates. The futures markets are currently pricing a September cut as a certainty, and any rhetoric hinting otherwise would be a negative surprise.
- On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the July manufacturing survey. It is expected to come in at 48.8, up slightly from the previous month but still suggesting slight contraction in manufacturing. The ISM report has shown improvement in recent months but has still been below 50 in 19 of the previous 20 months.
- And finally, on Friday, the July employment report will be released. Survey expectations are for nonfarm payrolls (NFP) to increase 178,000 and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1%. Monthly NFP gains have slowed the past two months from the torrid pace of the December-to-March period, and the unemployment rate has increased from under 3.5% to 4.1% in the past 11 months.
Three Things to Know
- Elizabeth Francis, the oldest living American, turned 115 years old on July 25, 2024. (Source: @historyinmemes)
- Last week, 437 stocks in the S&P 500 were higher, yet it closed lower at almost 1%. (Source: @RyanDetrick)
- Environmental, social and governance-based funds and exchange-traded funds shed $13.5 billion in the first half of 2024, more outflows and fund closures so far this year than any period since Morningstar began tracking their flows in 2018. (Source: Citywire)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.