By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Energy prices are down more than 10% over the past six weeks but steadied last week in advance of this week’s OPEC+ meeting. That meeting will happen amid reports that there is a disagreement among members on how much to cut oil production to stop the slide in prices. Declining oil prices have been a contributing factor to the changes in U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Futures currently are pricing in no additional increases and the possibility of interest rate cuts as soon as the March 2024 meeting.
- Important economic reports next week include new home sales, consumer confidence and construction spending.
- The highlight, however, will be the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, personal consumption expenditures (PCE). PCE and core PCE (excluding food and energy) are expected up 3.1% and 3.5% year over year, respectively. That would represent considerable progress on the Fed’s fight against inflation, but those readings remain above the Fed’s comfort zone.
Three Things to Know
- As of the market close on November 22, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” (Facebook/Meta, Apple, Amazon, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) were up 15.62% year to date, while the rest of the S&P 500 was up only 3.15% over the same period. (Source: The Market Ear)
- The S&P 500 is up almost 5% since the first Fed rate hike on March 17, 2022. There have been a total of 11 hikes while raising the rate from 0.25% to 5.50%. (Source: @Barchart)
- On November 27, 1924, the first Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade was held in New York City, and it became an American tradition, especially known for its huge balloons, which were introduced in 1927. (Source: britannica.com)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.