By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Earnings season picks up this week. Last week saw positive reports from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citi. This week will feature more large banks such as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley as well as some of the beleaguered regional banks such as Zions and Bank OKZ.
- The economic data is all expected to paint a less-than-rosy picture. Housing starts and existing home sales are both expected lower while the leading index is forecast to be down 0.7%, which would be the 12th consecutive monthly decline. Housing has been one of the sectors hardest hit by higher rates.
- Regional economic activity reports are all expected to be sharply lower. Empire Manufacturing, New York Fed Business Services, the Philly Fed Business Outlook all are expected to show weakness on the east coast last month. Manufacturing is another sector that has shown recession levels of activity in recent months.
Three Things to Know
- Last week’s reading on March producer prices (PPI) of 2.7% was the lowest since fall 2018. (Source: Haver)
- Fed fund futures are currently pricing the most likely scenario as the Fed is finished with this cycle. The average a year after the final rate hike is for the S&P 500 is to be up 12% and the market has been higher five of seven times. (Source: Bloomberg, Ryan Detrick)
- Income tax day is April 18th this year. The original deadline for paying taxes to the IRS was March 1, but this date was moved back to March 15 in 1918, and then again to the current date of April 15 in 1954. Both moves were to give the government more time to process tax returns as the number of tax filers increased over time. (Source: factretriever.com)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.