Three Things to Know & Watch

By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer

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Three Things to Watch

  • Economic reports on the producer price index (PPI), retail sales, and small business optimism will be released prior to the Fed’s announcement mid-week. Producer prices are expected to remain elevated (up 10.8% year-over-year) while the other data is expected to confirm the economy is slowing, but still has some forward momentum.
  • The big event for the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is expected to increase the target Fed funds rate 50 basis points to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference Wednesday afternoon where market participants will be looking for clues on the future path of monetary policy and the Fed’s outlook.
  • The markets themselves will be in focus this week with volatility across equities, cryptocurrencies, and Treasury bonds increasing. Market pundits are increasingly mentioning 3400-3500 on the S&P 500 as a level to watch. The S&P opens the week at 3900.

Three Things to Know

  • In a recent survey conducted by the Financial Times, 68% of economists surveyed predicted the next recession will start in 2023. (Source: The Financial Times)
  • There was an average of 2.24 million U.S. airline travelers per day over the last week, the highest level since the start of the pandemic. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
  • The S&P 500 has declined for nine of the last 10 weeks for just the third time since 1980. (Source: The Irrelevant Investor)

 

The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.