Three Things to Know & Watch

Feb 13, 2023

By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch

  • Inflation will be front and center this week with both consumer and producer price indexes to be released. The monthly change in CPI is expected to accelerate to 0.5% with the year-over-year rate falling to 6.2% versus 6.5% in December. Food and energy prices are expected to be the reason for a higher monthly increase.
  • Retail sales are expected to rebound from a dismal December. The forecast is for a strong 1.9% gain. Retail sales have been lower four of the last six months as consumers struggle with higher inflation.
  • The index of leading economic indicators will be released on Friday and is expected to be lower for the 11th consecutive month. That has historically been an accurate predictor of recession.

Three Things to Know

  • The Super Bowl Indicator is a nonscientific barometer of the stock market. The idea behind the indicator is that a Super Bowl win for an NFL American Football Conference (AFC) team predicts a stock market decline (a bear market) in the next year. On the other hand, a win for a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) foretells a rise in the market or a bull run in the upcoming year. This year, the Kansas City Chiefs (an AFC team) won Super Bowl 57 (Source: Investopedia)
  • About 18.8 million Americans are predicted to use a sick day on Monday, Feb. 13 after the Super Bowl, while 7.8 million of those are expected to “ghost” their employers or fake being sick to get out of work. (Source: The Workforce Institute)
  • Valentine’s Day is celebrated every Feb. 14 as a day to express affection with gifts and greetings. Americans spend the second most on cards for Valentine’s Day, second to Christmas. (Source:


The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.