By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Inflation will be the highlight of the week. On Thursday, the December CPI report will be released. Prices are expected to be flat for the month with core CPI (excluding food and energy) forecast up 0.3%. That would put the year-over-year changes at 6.5% and 5.7%, respectively, down significantly from the peaks earlier in 2022. This report will have a large part in shaping expectations for the Fed, which next meets on Jan.31-Feb. 1.
- Fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off this week with a number of large banks and financial institutions reporting. On Friday, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, BlackRock, and Bank of America are all scheduled to release earnings. Earnings estimates have been downgraded through the second half of 2022 and the Bloomberg consensus is now $228/share for the S&P 500.
- On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data will be released. Recent surveys that measure sentiment have been soft and could be overstating economic weakness.
Three Things to Know
- 2022 was the first year in history in which both stocks (S&P 500) and bonds (Treasuries) fell 10% or more in the same year. (Source: @RyanDetrick)
- 5 million jobs were created in 2022. Only once did the following year fall into a recession when more than 3 million jobs were created. (Source: @RyanDetrick)
- Farmers are receiving $3.34/dozen for eggs, up over 200% from a year ago. (Source: Haver Analytics)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.