Three Things to Watch
- Inflation and inflation expectations will be front and center this week. On Thursday, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the favored inflation measure of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will be released, and it is expected to be hot. Overall PCE is forecast to increase 4.1% year-over-year with core PCE expected up 3.4%, which would be the highest since the fall of 2023 and well above the Fed’s stated 2% target.
- On Friday, the University of Michigan will release consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. One-year inflation expectations are forecast to jump to 4.8%, another indication that consumers are worried about price increases.
- Multiple Fed officials will be on the tapes this week to hopefully provide clarity on the Fed’s thinking under the new chairman. The Fed had a variety of opinions after last week’s meeting (no change), but the consensus is that the Fed is more likely to hike than cut rates at this time.
Three Things to Know
- Approximately 1% of people account for 63% of all violent crimes, 0.2% ever commit murder, and 67% of all murders are committed by people with prior arrests. (Source: @ArthurMacWaters)
- The city of Oakland, Calif., has seen a 37% decrease in car break-ins over the last year. Auto glass repair businesses across Oakland report similar declines tied to fewer break-ins. (Source: KTVU TV)
- The Magnificent 7 ( Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet [Google], Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Tesla) is down year-to-date while the rest of the S&P 500 is up more than 13%. (Source: Ryan Detrick)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and
data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed
are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an
offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.