By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
Print This Post
Three Things to Watch
- This is a very busy week from a macro and earnings perspective. Top-tier economic releases include the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing and Services surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, and the January employment report. The manufacturing survey is expected to show some improvement with prices paid and the overall index firming slightly. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase 68,000 (a slight improvement from December) with the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate steady at 62.4% and 4.4%, respectively.
- It’s another big earnings week with high-profile Magnificent 7 names Amazon and Alphabet reporting; Advanced Micro Devices, Merck and Pfizer are also on the tapes. In total, approximately 300-350 U.S. companies will report this week. About one-third of the S&P 500 has reported so far with 79% reporting a positive aggregate earnings surprise of 9.4%.
- Looming over the markets again is the partial government shutdown over the demand for changes from the Department of Homeland Security. The U.S. economy seemingly is regaining its momentum after the longest shutdown on record in late 2025.
Three Things to Know
- Bitcoin fell below $76,000 in weekend trading, down about 40% from its 2025 peak of $125,000. Source: Bloomberg
- While the broader U.S. housing market remains stuck in a historic slump, the ultraluxury sector saw a massive breakout in 2025 with $10 million-plus sales jumping over 30%. Los Angeles led the charge as sellers finally accepted mansion taxes and wildfire-displaced buyers sought new estates, while Silicon Valley’s market grew thanks to the massive concentration of wealth from the AI boom. (Source: WSJ)
- China is staring down a future where 200 million people live alone by 2030, and the market is scrambling to catch up with this new loneliness economy. Safety has become a primary driver, evidenced by the sudden craze for check-in apps that ping emergency contacts if a user goes silent for too long. Beyond just safety, the physical world is changing too. Restaurants are swapping large group tables for partitioned solo booths, while pet ownership and AI companions are filling the emotional gaps left by shrinking family networks and high-pressure urban life. (Source: South China Morning Post)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.