By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Monday trading will focus on the reactions to the news from Venezuela, which will be of particular interest to the energy markets. Venezuela sits on 303 million barrels of crude oil, roughly 20% of the world’s global reserves. Oil is expected to fall slightly in the immediate wake of the news on the idea a revamp of the Venezuelan oil industry could make it a bigger supplier, although that would take years to fully realize. Oil futures don’t trade on the weekend, so Monday could be a volatile opening.
- Plenty of economic data on tap this week with the December Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing report on Monday, ISM Services on Wednesday and December employment on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls are again expected to be slightly soft (+59,000) with the unemployment rate at 4.5%.
- The dollar weakened slightly over the weekend, and traders will also watch typical safe-haven assets such as gold and silver in addition to oil, with Venezuela joining Iran and Ukraine as geopolitical flashpoints.
Three Things to Know
- The S&P 500 hit 39 more all-time highs in 2025. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
- U.S. federal debt is up to a record $38.5 trillion in 2025. The national debt officially surged +$2.3 trillion last year, equal to +$6.3 billion per day. At this pace, total U.S. debt will rise to $40.0 trillion as early as August. Since 2020, U.S. debt has skyrocketed by +$15.3 trillion, posting a +$2.6 trillion average annual increase. This means U.S. federal debt now stands at $285,733 per household. (Source: The Kobiessi Letter)
- On a net basis, foreigners bought more than $700 billion worth of U.S. stocks over the last 12 months, the largest inflow this century. (Source: Barchart)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.