By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Traders will focus on the Federal Reserve’s final policy-setting meeting of the year. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, which would put the target federal funds rate at 3.50%. The path for 2026 remains more uncertain, with inflation lingering above target and the labor market cooling off.
- Last week bonds had their worst week since April, despite the expectations of another Fed cut this week. With inflation remaining higher than comfortable and an impending fiscal boost from President Trump’s spending bills, bonds are suddenly in focus and expected to remain under pressure as we head into 2026.
- The October JOLTS data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) will be released Tuesday morning as the Fed begins deliberations. It will represent the last and most current update on the job market as the Fed sets monetary policy. Most labor-market measures have been softening, and this will be closely watched since no October unemployment survey will be released due to the shutdown.
Three Things to Know
- Copper prices in London hit a record $11,620 per ton on Friday. Prices have risen over +30% this year as investors anticipate a shortage driven by aggressive U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential import tariffs next year. (Source: Kobeissi Letter)
- In December 1941, there were 38 sets of brothers and one father-and-son pair serving on the USS Arizona, one of the ships that was sunk in the Pearl Harbor attack. Allowing siblings to serve together was fairly common at the time and was thought to boost morale. After the attack, in which 1,177 of the 1,514 men aboard the Arizona perished, the military began to rethink allowing family members to serve together. Of the 38 sets of brothers, 23 were lost, and three sets were left with just one survivor. Father and son Thomas and William Free both died in the attack. (Source: The Collector)
- The German 30-year yield is the highest since 2011. The Japanese 30-year yield is far and away the highest this century. They yield 3.43% and 3.36%, respectively. (Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.