Three Things to Know & Watch

Oct 3, 2022

By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer

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Three Things to Watch

  • The economic calendar is full of important data releases with the two most important Monday’s ISM report on manufacturing and Friday’s employment report for September. The manufacturing survey is expected to remain slightly in positive territory at 52.1 while prices paid are expected to continue to fall. The prices paid index is expected at 52 and previously set a 2022 high in March of 87.1. The ISM report is a diffusion index with 50 or greater indicating expansion. The September employment report is expected to show a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate at 3.7%.
  • There is a full slate of Fed speakers (14 total) on tap. The message is expected to remain the same, that the Fed will continue to raise rates and tighten monetary policy until there are clear signs inflation is receding.
  • Credit default swaps for several large European financial institutions traded at levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis. This sign of potential financial stress will be front and center this week.

Three Things to Know

  • Wednesday is the 60th anniversary of the first James Bond movie, Dr. No. The franchise has generated more than $7 billion in worldwide box office receipts with the 2012 release, Skyfall, the top-grossing James Bond film at $1 billion. Source: CBNC
  • Global stocks and global bonds (as measured by the MSCI World Stock Index and Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index) are both more than 20% off their highs (26.8% and 23.8%, respectively). Source: Ayesha Tariq
  • This is the ninth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 is down 25% or worse. On every occasion but one, (he Global Financial Crisis), the S&P 500 was up one year later. Source: A Wealth of Common Sense


The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.