By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- Inflation will be front-and-center this week with both PPI and CPI on the docket. Both are expected to show the second month of deceleration although core CPI is forecast to be slightly higher. Inflation remains elevated and the focus of policymakers. CPI is expected to be up 8% (year-over-year) versus 8.5% last month and a peak of 9.1% in this cycle.
- On Friday, the University of Michigan will release consumer sentiment. Both current conditions and future expectations are forecast to be a tick higher versus last month, but both readings remain depressed relative to the 2021 highs. Inflation expectations are also expected to fall to 4.6% and 2.9% for one year and five years, respectively.
- On Thursday, both retail sales and industrial production will be released and provide important clues on the strength of the economy. Both are expected to show and economy that continues to grow, albeit at a pace that is slowing.
Three Things to Know
- The Federal Open Market Committee meets again next week to discuss monetary policy. The consensus is that the Fed will increase the target Fed funds rate 75 basis points, a view confirmed by the futures market. That would have the lower bound at 3%. (Source; Bloomberg)
- The average mortgage payment is up 40% since last year and housing affordability is the lowest since spring 1989. (Source; Haver, The Kobeissi Letter)
- The 9/11 attacks killed 2,996 people, 400 of whom were emergency personnel such as firefighters and police officers. The number of people injured was over 6,000. The ages of the victims ranged from two to 85 years old and about 75%-80% of the victims were men. (Source: thefactsite.com)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.