By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey is expected to show domestic manufacturing remains in a recession. The index has been below 50 for 23 of the past 24 months and is expected at 47.6 for November. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the survey-based data series.
- The November employment report is expected to rebound with nonfarm payrolls forecast to increase 200,000. The October reading was negatively impacted by two hurricanes and the strike at Boeing. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is focused on employment as the other half of its dual mandate (inflation) is slowly trending closer to the 2% target. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, off the worst level of the year and still indicative of full/near full employment.
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also participating in a moderated discussion on Wednesday at a New York Times event. His appearance comes as the odds (per the futures markets) continue to indicate that another 25-basis-point rate cut in December is a probability, but not a certainty.
Three Things to Know
- Student loan debt rose by $21 billion in the third quarter of 2024 to a record $1.61 trillion, according to Fed data. Over the past 15 years, student loan debt has grown by 230%. In other words, each U.S. state holds an average of $29.9 billion of student loan debt. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- A record 56.4% of consumers expect equities to be higher in the coming year (2025). (Source: The Conference Board)
- The average home price in the United States is up over 50% (53.4%) in the past five years, more than double the increase in wages. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.