Three Things to Know & Watch

Jul 1, 2024

By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
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Three Things to Watch

  • Labor markets will be the focus this week with the releases of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey on Tuesday and the June employment report on Friday.  Payrolls in the world’s biggest economy are forecast to have grown 190,000, with hourly earnings projected to have increased 3.9% from a year ago—the smallest year-over-year increase in three years. Those numbers would be favorable for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in terms of leaving the door open for rate cuts this year.
  • On Monday morning, the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey is expected to come in below 50 for the 19th time in the past 20 months, indicating contraction. The employment subcomponent has been slowly improving and will be closely watched. It was above 50 in May, representing some forward progress on hiring in the manufacturing sector.
  • On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will join Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, on a panel discussion about interest rates in Portugal.

Three Things to Know

  • The worst day in June for the S&P 500 was a 0.31% drop. This would be the smallest worst day of any month since February 2017 at -0.26%. In fact, since 1928, this month would rank as the 5th smallest worst day of any month ever. (Source: @Ryan Detrick)
  • While the market was up 3.4% in the second quarter (Q2) at the cap-weighted index level, the average stock in the Russell 1000 was actually down 4%. Across all but one size decile in the entire index, average Q2 returns were negative.  The only decile that posted a gain in Q2 was the one that contains the 100 largest stocks in the index.  These stocks were up an average of just 0.76% in the quarter.  That still doesn’t match the 3.4% gain that the index saw, which means that really it was only a handful of the very largest stocks that drove all of the Q2 gains. (Source: Bespoke)
  • According to the National Archives, the Continental Congress actually voted for independence on July 2, 1776. And even though the written Declaration of Independence was dated July 4, it wasn’t signed until August 2, 1776. Celebrating Independence Day wasn’t common until after the War of 1812. By the 1870s, the Fourth of July was one of the most important nonreligious holidays in the United States. It wasn’t until 1941 that it became a paid holiday for federal employees. (Source: Business Insider)


The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.