Three Things to Watch
- This is a holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed for Good Friday. March employment will be released on the holiday, with nonfarm payrolls expected to increase 60,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%. A consensus number does little to change U.S. Federal Reserve expectations, which show no change for the rest of 2026.
- Other data to be released this week includes consumer confidence, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), retail sales and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing data. Retail sales ex-autos are expected to increase 0.3%, and the ISM is expected to be unchanged at 52.4. The ISM price index is forecast to make a big jump to 73.8, which would be the highest level in almost four years.
- The Middle East will be the main focus as it has been since the war in Iran began. Energy prices reflect the most direct view on the outcome. West Texas crude recently traded over $100/barrel for the first time since February 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine.
Three Things to Know
- The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
- Global long-term bonds posted -$4.7 billion in outflows in the week ending March 25, the second largest on record. This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic. At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their third consecutive weekly withdrawal, bringing the total to -$13.5 billion. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Treasury Index is down -2.4% so far in March, on track for its largest monthly loss since September 2022. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- The Nasdaq enters the week down 10 of the last 11 trading weeks. It has never been down 11 weeks in a row. (Source: Bespoke)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.