Three Things to Watch
- After last week’s poor jobs report, investors will get a look at the second part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate—inflation. On Wednesday, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Both core and overall CPI are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively. On Friday, the Fed’s favored inflation measure will be released. Core personal consumption expenditures are expected to come in at 3.1% versus the Fed’s 2% target over a market cycle.
- There will be plenty of other economic data to parse. One release to watch closely is the University of Michigan Sentiment data out on Friday. The preliminary March survey of consumers should give a fresh and first look on the impact of the war with Iran, both on consumer expectations as well as their attitudes on inflation and jobs.
- The markets were volatile and weak in the first days of Operation Epic Fury. Traders and investors will pay particular attention to the price of oil. Spiking energy prices have negative repercussions for both inflation and economic activity.
Three Things to Know
- Crude oil futures started trading in 1983. Last week’s 36% spike was the biggest weekly percentage increase that we’ve ever seen. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
- Finance and insurance job openings fell -117,000 in December to 134,000, the lowest level since February 2012. Available vacancies in these sectors have dropped -410,000, or -75%, since the 2022 peak. Openings are now even lower than at the 2001 recession bottom. By comparison, the largest monthly decline during the 2008 Financial Crisis was -125,000. As a result, the finance and insurance job openings rate fell to 1.9%, meaning fewer than two out of every 100 jobs in the sector are currently vacant, the lowest since February 2010. Excluding the 2009-2010 lows, this is the lowest rate recorded this century. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- The war in Iran is estimated to be costing about $891.4 million per day, which is expected to decline as the United States shifts to “less expensive munitions” and as the drones and missiles launched by Iran decline. (Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.