By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
Three Things to Watch
- There is a large amount of data coming this week, much of it is delayed data because of the government shutdown. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has cut rates 75 basis points since September and is hoping the data justifies this. Highlights include November payrolls on Tuesday, the November Consumer Price Index on Thursday, and October personal consumption expenditures on Friday. No forecasts for the inflation data, but nonfarm payrolls are expected to be soft, increasing 50,000.
- Six separate Fed speakers will be on the tapes after the Fed cut rates at the third consecutive meeting last week. Monday and Wednesday will feature specific comments on inflation (Fed Governor Miran) and the economic outlook (Fed Governor Waller).
- The bond market’s reaction to the end of the data void will be closely watched. The bond market is more dovish than the Fed (pricing in two rate cuts next year versus the Fed’s guidance of one), and this week should help start to frame that debate.
Three Things to Know
- For the third quarter of 2025, 40% of Russell 2000 companies reported negative 12-month earnings, near the highest percentage on record. This percentage has more than doubled since 2007 and has remained in a clear upward trend. This is also in line with the post-2008 Financial Crisis peak of 40%. By comparison, 33% of the index’s firms were unprofitable following the 2001 recession. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- Retail investors accounted for 20% of U.S. stock market trading volume in the third quarter of 2025, the second highest on record. This is only below the first quarter of 2021 peak during the meme stock frenzy. By comparison, before 2020, this percentage averaged 15% for several years. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- The median age of the first-time home buyer in the United States has increased from 30 years old in 2010 to 40 years old today. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.