By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
Three Things to Watch
- The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will meet for the fifth time this calendar year to discuss interest rates under tremendous political pressure as well as the uncertainty from trade policy and the economy. Futures indicate very low odds of an interest-rate cut, but traders will closely watch the statement and the vote itself for any changes in the patient data-dependent approach—as well as for any dissents in terms of policy itself.
- The economic calendar is also busy with second-quarter gross domestic product, which is due on Wednesday and expected to rebound sharply from the first quarter (+2.4%). On Thursday, the Fed’s favored inflation measure (core personal consumption expenditures) is expected to remain steady at 2.7% year-over-year, and on Friday the July employment report (nonfarm payrolls) is expected to slow to +109,000, with the unemployment rate a tick higher at 4.2%.
- Second-quarter earnings will continue to roll in, highlighted by Magnificent Seven names Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta.
Three Things to Know
- With approximately one-third of the S&P 500 members having reported second-quarter results, positive earnings surprises outnumber negative surprises by almost 7 to 1, with the aggregate earnings surprise up 6.9%. (Source: Bloomberg)
- The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in a single stock than it is today with Nvidia, representing close to 8% of the index. (Source: Creative Planning)
- Ozzy Osbourne, who died last week at the age of 76, is one of only 28 rockers who have been inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame twice. He was first inducted with Black Sabbath in 2006 and then again in 2024 as a solo artist. (Source: WBAB, 102.3 Long Island)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.