By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
Three Things to Watch
- Trade will again be front and center this week with the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs set to expire on Wednesday. President Trump has said he will not extend the pause, and he will start sending letters to countries specifying what tariff rates they will pay. This could test the U.S. equity markets with several indices at/near record levels.
- The data calendar is light with the highlight being the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. It has yo-yoed after last fall’s national election. It rallied sharply then fell on tariff uncertainty and bounced higher in May. It is expected to trend sideways in the June reading.
- Global central banks will take center stage with rate decisions due from Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Malaysia, among others.
Three Things to Know
- It took less than three months from the April bear market lows for the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high. This was the second-fastest recovery for U.S. stocks in the last 75 years, trailing only the vertical rally in 1982 (note: including dividends). (Source: Charlie Bilello)
- U.S. Continued Jobless Claims are now at their highest level since November 2021. This tends to be a leading indicator of a weaker labor market where jobs are harder to find. (Source: Charlie Bilello)
- Forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 is back to new highs, and 2026 S&P 500 EPS is $300. (Source: Ryan Detrick)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.