By Bill Hornbarger, Chief Investment Officer
Three Things to Watch
- First-quarter earnings will continue to roll in with 39% of the S&P 500 members scheduled to report. High-profile names Apple, Amazon and Meta will all be on the tapes. To date this earnings season, 75% of the S&P 500 companies reporting have posted a positive surprise, with the aggregate surprise +10.1%. That is in line with FactSet’s blended earnings (actual results plus estimated results for those that have not reported yet).
- On the data front, consumer confidence is expected to remain weak on Wednesday, and the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing report is forecast to remain firmly in a contraction phase at 48. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to climb a tepid 130,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product will be closely watched for signs of the impact of the trade war on growth.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) favored inflation report (core personal consumption expenditures) is expected to decline to 2.6%, with the overall number at 2.2%. A reading of 2.6% would be the lowest since March 2021 and would leave room for the Fed to cut rates if they deem it necessary.
Three Things to Know
- This has been one of the most volatile years in history: The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year. This is the highest reading since 2022, when the shares hit 29% for the full year. By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month. According to Bloomberg, April is on track to be the third-most volatile month on record, after October 2008 and March 2020. (Source: The Kobeissi Letter)
- The 2025 NFL Draft was completed this weekend with University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward going first overall. In the early years, the NFL Draft was far longer than it is today. It started with nine rounds, then from the late 1940s through the 1950s, it commonly spanned 32 rounds, compared to just seven rounds in the modern format. Teams would select hundreds of players, many of whom never played a single snap in the league. This was due to looser scouting systems and the uncertainty of player availability. (Source: MSN)
- After being down more than 13% at one point, the S&P 500 is down just 1.54% in April. If it can turn it positive, it will be the largest monthly reversal (to end positive) ever. The prior record? March 2009, which saw the index down 9.3% before ending the month higher by 8.5%. (Source: @scottcharts)
The above information reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.